Obama's Iraq Speech: I'll Take Half a Loaf

President Obama:

This afternoon, I spoke to former President George W. Bush. It’s well known that he and I disagreed about the war from its outset. Yet no one could doubt President Bush’s support for our troops, or his love of country and commitment to our security. As I have said, there were patriots who supported this war, and patriots who opposed it. And all of us are united in appreciation for our servicemen and women, and our hope for Iraq’s future.

A good few wingnuts are annoyed that Obama went no further, to admit that Bush was right in 2007 and the Surge worked. Jennifer Rubin, and Jonah Goldberg both make this point, and Stephen Green wrestles it down and holds its nose into the mess it made. Myself, I don't care too too much. Yeah, it would be nice, but politicians don't get paid to admit error.

This is a President who has blamed his predecessor at every turn, who stood in sharp opposition to his predecessor on Iraq from its beginning. Here, without condescension or agression, he speaks of Mr. Bush and Iraq in at least the semblance of a spirit of charity.

That sounds like healing, friends.

Remember Iraq?

We Won.

It's a strange war that ends this way; but as Clausewitz said, war is the continuation of politics by other means.  We're moving from war to a very tense political environment.  That's more or less what we should expect.  What comes next?  Either compromise arises that allows tensions to ramp down, so that the political takes over from the war; or it goes the other way, and war blooms anew from the failure of politics.

Triumphalism would be wrong at this point. The fact is, nothing about this war went according to plan, and if we end up slumping towards defeat in Afghanistan and shrugging our way to a (hopefully) Cold War with Iran, then it might yet prove a Phyrric victory.

But all you folk who said that the war was unwinnable, that staying the course was infinitely stupid, that al-Qaeda was destined to triumph, that civil war was inescapable, that the whole thing was doomed, lock, stock and barrel; YOU WERE WRONG.

I'd just thought I'd point that out.

The Ground Zero Mosque Solution

I have my doubts about whether the builders of Cordoba House -- aka the Ground Zero Mosque -- are really interested in bringing about dialogue between Islam and the West. But if they wanted to prove it too me, there's a simple thing they could do.

Rebuild the Church of St. Nicholas that was destroyed on 9/11. First. And just as tall.

If they can do it in Bagdad, they can do it in New York.

Update: Bill Whittle works himself into a fine lather. I don't disagree.

The Iraq War was Won, and There Was Much Rejoicing...

yay. (Hat tip: Insty) Knife point:

Our friends died to secure this day. And here on this road in Diyala, I saw proof that the blood spilled in this backward country had value. It made the cause noble and just. This may not mean much to someone who stands in opposition to our fight, but it is the legacy of our fallen. The honor of their sacrifice. They gave their lives for others like me to come home. They died trying to preserve freedom for this woman. They confronted those who wished to dominate a people in the name of violence and religion, who wished to destroy our culture and way of life.  Even if most Americans may not understand who or what we fight, these men not only believed, many reenlisted to continue the fight until the war was won. I came home in search of that woman’s spirit in the hearts of my fellow Americans.  I came home expecting to find the sacrifice of these brave patriots revered at every turn by those who overwhelmingly sent us to war from Washington.

I’m still looking.

That's the funny thing about democracy, so noble and just in the achievement and so small and vicious in the practice. For the moment, all I can say to David Bellavia is that one day, when the fight over the war is over, and no more "gotchas" can be gotten, the real achievement of he and his comrades will be known, and the shock and awe of it will stand as solemn as the gardens of Arlington.

Lick 'Em Tommorrow.

General David Petraeus quoting Ulysses S. Grant in the WaPo's On Leadership Video Series:



That's one of my favorite lines from the Civil War. It's vintage Grant, pure unperturbability in the face of chaos. Nor was it bravado: he turned his army right around the next morning and handed the rebels their ass, shoving them out of West Tennessee for the remainder of the war and establishing a safe base of operations against Vicksburg and the rest of the Western Theater. The last thing the Confederates were expecting to see on the morning of April 7, after knocking the Yankees around like tenpins the previous day, was to see those same Yankees pushing after them, full of fight. Not even Lee's masterful display at Chancellorsville the following year beats Shiloh for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

And that is a lesson about war that seems to need re-learning with every passing generation: it's not over until it's over. Afghanistan wasn't over in '03; Iraq wasn't over in '07. They're never over until one side stops fighting.

With Republicans Like This...

Living in the People's State of Baltimorea (which some call Maryland), generally one appreciates Republicans where one can find them, especially as I live in one of the Republican counties of that state. So you can imagine my dismay to discover that my Congressman, Wayne Gilchrest (R-1st Dystrict) voted for the Non-Binding Declarlation of Political Expediency.

Money Quote:

We need a sense of urgency to end our presence there and stop the violence
that has left over 3,100 American soldiers dead, and many more thousands
wounded. If sending more troops was the answer, I would be the first to support
that effort. But the Iraqi people have suffered enough and the military
families who have loved ones in harm’s way have sacrificed enough.

Meaning what? That we should retreat and say the hell with it? Or do something else, unnamed and so far, unpondered, but not surge?

In a war, someone wins and someone loses. Is Wayne saying we've already lost, or is he suggesting that we might have lost, pending the outcome of the surge that's happening regardless of this resolution.

This is sickening. For a man to cross the aisle like this, to vote for something that changes nothing, accomplishes nothing but a theoretically crowd-pleasing "truth to power" moment, against a war that he has thus far consistently supported, is either an act of gamesmanship or a massive act of Vietnam Syndrome flash-backing by a decorated Marine Platoon Seargent.

You can bet that there's a letter getting shot off. Will post when I compose it.

The Plan and the Problems.

Pat Dollard says the plan is multifacted, learns from mistakes, and is aggressive. A few points:

1. U.S. troops are to be gradually pulled back from all Iraqi cities and
towns and sent to seal the borders with Iran and Syria. The real insurgency is
not indigenous to Iraq, but being pumped in through Iran and Syria.

4. Generals and leaders from Saddam’s Baath party, many out of work for three years, will be encouraged to rejoin the military enticed with high-pay and bonuses designed to serve as retrograde pay for their time off. The Baath party generals will be key to victory in Al Anbar Province, as I will lay out later today or tomorrow.

9. Immediate, highly visible Infrastructure improvement first focused on the peaceful and cooperative areas of Mosul, Amara and Karbala. The idea is to make other areas around jealous of the rapidly modernizing cities, in order to incent them to tow the line of cooperation with the new Iraqi Government.

All of which begs the question of why no one thought of such before. I think that a counterinsurgency campaign is an exercise in trial-and-error; first one must accept that the insurgency exists, and second, that one can't merely blow it away either with bullets or ballots. Hopefully, this plan will yield verifiable results in a relatively quick time frame. As Lincoln in '64, we are fighting the clock as well as the enemy.

Judging by this, early signs are not promising. However, note the following:

It also appeared to fit a pattern emerging among the suspected Sunni
militants: trying to hit U.S. forces harder outside the capital rather than
confront them on the streets during a massive American-led security
operation.

Almost sounds as though the countryside was where they were coming from, don't it?

Since It's So Obvious that Iraq = Vietnam...

Let's look at the results of pulling out of that war. Lawrence Haas does, and look what he discovers:

In 1975, a Democratic Congress cut off funds for the U.S. effort in Vietnam. The public, disillusioned over Vietnam and Watergate, elected Jimmy Carter, who promised honesty and applauded the end of “our irrational fear of Communism.”

As America turned inward in the late 1970s, enemies sensed our vulnerability and dangers mounted. The fear of communism was not so irrational after all. In Ethiopia, Angola, Rhodesia and elsewhere, the Soviet Union or Cuba worked to stoke Third World revolution. The Soviets more openly laid bare their expansionist agenda in late 1979 by invading Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolution in Iran of 1979 toppled a staunch U.S. ally. The student seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran, leading to a 444-day hostage crisis, painted a picture of American impotence.

All of which resulted in the election of Ronald Reagan and a new belligerent American foreign policy, which further institutionalized the belief that Republicans are the hawk party and Democrats the dove party. Note as well the connection between the post-Vietnam era and the rise of current enemies.

The fact that this is penned by Gore's former communications director gives me hope that someone on the other side of the aisle appreciates that the post-Iraq situation will need to be handled by something other than blaming Bush for all our troubles. As I've recently been bothering the Commisar at Politburo Diktat, a conservative who's changed his mind about Iraq, I've been waiting six years for the Democrats and the Left to come up with alternative strategies to defeat the jihadis. So far, zilch. If that changes, I'll be the first to applaud it, and the courage of any Democrats to push against their extremists in doing so.

For What it's Worth...

Here's what USA Today says about civvy casualties in Iraq.

Like I've said, this is the sort of thing that's been promised before. And I think it's a bit early to talk about a monthly trend when the month isn't over. And even if it's true, we've seen things dip and peak with tedious regularity. But, there it is.

Al-Sadr, Where is he? I don't know, I don't know...

Not Iraq! (cheers)

I think I can pierce the mystery:

1. Sadr is one of the bulwarks of PM Maliki of Iraq.
2. Maliki has been under pressure from Bush to man up and start dealing with all the militias.
3. Sadr leaves the country before the American and Iraqi army start to bring the pain.
4. The reason we didn't wack Sadr back in 2004 was because he had the protection of the Shi'ite religious establishment, whom we did not want to offend.

Conclusion: a deal was reached with the al-Sistani, the Iraqi Ayatollah, that we would be permitted to go after Sadr's army provided that Sadr himself was not harmed. Sadr conveniently blows town and lets his lieutenants take the fall. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he returns post-surge and remains a noisy, albeit non-paramilitary force in Iraq for decades to come.

Obama vs. the Great Australian Chickenhawk

I leave the appropriateness of John Howard's remarks to another man to decipher. But it seems to me that Obama's retort is a little un-just.

Australia's population is estimated at about 20-21 million people, far less than one-tenth of the United States. Moreover, Australia's military only numbers about 51,000 full-time troops and 19,400 reservists. With this force, Howard must keep commitments in Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor, The Solomon Islands, and Malaysia, plus, you know, defend the sixth-largest country in the world.

By comparison, the U.S. Armed Forces (all five branches) has 2,685,713 members. Our troops in Iraq thus constitutes approximately 5.2% of our total military strength. Australia's? 2.7%. Factor in the budget support (US$522 Billion vs. A$22 Billion), each military recieves, and I think it's fair to say that the Aussies are pulling their weight. At any rate, the 20,000 more that Obama suggests would be, at this juncture, an unmanageable strain.

I'm going to assume that Golden Boy just didn't know this.

The New Tipping Point

Let's say that this article in the New York Sun is overstating it's case. We've been promised "turnaround" in Iraq a couple of times before, only to see more bombings. But note the criteria of promised victory: enemy demoralization. We have been told it is impossible to demoralize our enemy, that they are driven by an inscrutable fury. Is such an assumption truly supportable? If not, how may we convince our political class of it?

Hip Pappy Nuh Yr

2007. This bizarre, un-nicknamed ("aughts"? Please.), decade of interesting times is running to a close. It will be 2010 before we know it.

I'm celebrating the new year by hooking up my computer at my new house to my new DSL via wireless and waving bye-bye to dial-up, hopefully forever. I plan on cleaning up this site a little, re-focusing, re-commenting, etc. but I'm still working to jobs and won't have a lot of time to post. With a bit of luck, elbow grease, and good old-fashioned frenzy, by the mid-point of the year all this will have settled down some.




Saddam strung up like a horse-thief. Huzzah. No need for the blog devoted to his trial then. Snipped lively. On we go.

"We can walk away from this enemy, but they will not walk away from us,"

That's General Abizaid talking at Harvard. The fact that I still feel the need to make that argument is suggestive either of my paranoia or my accurate sense of the coming betrayal. I dearly hope it's not the latter.

Pelosi says, "Kitchen Girl, Make Me a Dacquiri..."

More She Who Does Not Blink coverage, courtesy of Protein Wisdom.

And The Pelosi-Watch Begins...

A handful of my fellow wingnuts have already laid into She Who Does Not Blink, for beginning her presumptive-Speaker election with a does of Orwellian Obfuscation not seen since "the meaning of 'is'":

"The point is this isn’t a war to win, it’s a situation to solve. And you define ‘winning’ any way you want, but you must solve this problem."

See now, all this time we thought we were fighting a war. We thought that what with the soldiers and the bombs and the death and killing and the hurting that some kind of armed conflict was going on. But that's because we're a bunch of crazy wingnuts who believe anything we're told by a guy who says he likes Jesus. These smart, post-modern, nuanced folks clearly know better: it's just a "situation." There is no "victory" or "defeat," merely a set of phenomena for which a presumably creative "solution" will be sought.

And we can define "winning" any way we want! Isn't that great? No need to worry about whether handing Iraq over to Iran will have any consequences several years down the road, why, we can just blame Bush for that! Now, back to squeezing more money out of the public fisc and doling it out, like the spoils of war, on our favorite designated victims groups!

What makes it all truly, deeply, glamorously suck is the fact that our President seems to have lost all backbone. Sure, I suppose finally accepting Rummy's resignation was in order, but did he have to dig back into his father's bullpen? Does he really believe that, at this point in the political cycle, that the wisest thing to do is to emulate the first Republican since Herbert Hoover NOT to get re-elected? That we need Jimmy Expletive Carter's National Security Adviser to guide us to mending fences with the Ayatollah?

So, by all means, let's roll out, pretend there's zero difference between the Soviet Union and Iran, and welcome those soldiers returning from that strange situation (Psst! Don't mention the war)!

"C'mon, Satan. Relax, Guy."

I can't have been the only one who wondered when the South Park Saddam and the real-life Saddam were going to meet.

I wonder if the movie is available in the rest of Iraq.

UPDATE: Hand-wringing here. Me, I have a hard time drumming up sympathy for the old bum, and think that after the song-and-dance he puts on at his trial, loudly claiming to still be the President and denying the validity of all around him, this is a thoroughly appropriate comeuppance.

Meanwhile, in the Center Ring...

...Saddam's trials continues in the same spirit as before, and the continuing irrelevance of his antics are becoming clearer as nail after nail goes in:

The prosecution accused Saddam of ordering the Anfal campaign, and charged all the defendants with war crimes and crimes against humanity for their involvement in the Anfal campaign aimed at clearing the Kurdish along the border with Iran.

Saddam claimed that the special tribunal was illegal and refused to state his identity, only identifying himself as "the president of the republic and commander-in-chief of the armed forces."

Ken Frost, who maintains the blog, is of the opinion that "It would have been far better to conduct a Nuremberg style trial, where all crimes would have been placed before the court in one trial." And he's got a point, but that's not the way the Iraqis want it done, and I think I can understand their reasons.

Nuremberg was done for the pleasure of the conquering allies of a blasted land; Saddam's trial is being done by his own people. They apparently want every crime noted, every butchery denounced. I can't say I blame them.

Doom is Imminent. Film at Eleven.

Iraqpundit on the coninuing STORY of a nation Gone to the Dogs:

The result, according to ABC news, is “encouraging.” The network reported that in the last two weeks, there has been a significant decline in violent attacks. The Iraqi ministry of defense says that violent attacks were down 30 percent, the U.S. military says the violence was down 22 percent, and both agree the numbers are preliminary.

This comes from ABC news and the WaPo, those bastions of neocon flackery. Bet they've all got Halliburton stock.

"In the past three weeks," he writes, "the U.S. military has killed about 25 death squad leaders, and captured more than 200," according to the officer leading the sweep.

But, by all means, lets continue shouting from the rooftops that Iraq is sliding towards civil war, already in a civil war, experiencing a low-level civil war, almost nearly half-way to a declaration of the possibility of a civil war, or whatever mush-meter you please. We've got Bush to bring down, after all.

A Moment of Silence

It behooves us, now that the news of the death of Zarqawi has hit the lenght and breadth of the blogosphere, that we point out, in all fairness, the downside of his passing:

No more of his brilliant, witty missives to Iowahawk.

You know what they say about not appreciating someone till he's gone? Too true, too true...


UPDATE: I was wrong. I hoped I would be.