Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Muni's Are Going to Fail. So Let's Buy!

Over at Ace this morning, a warning that states and munis are going to go busto:

Unfunded liabilities to state and municipal pensions are over a trillion dollars -- promises unbacked by any real coin -- and both states and municipalities rely on issuing debt to fund their increasingly unsustainable spending. They're approaching junk status now on that front, and will soon approach "joke," so very soon the market is going to impose some extremely serious austerity measures on these bodies, as they simply will no longer be able to borrow at all.

A dire situation, to which CNBC responds in careful, measured tones:

Kaminsky's Call: Muni Market May Be Great Buy Opportunity - CNBC

Remember, we are living in the golden era of "Too Big To Fail," a time when Uncle Sam is ready, willing and able to bailout any institution is deems systemically important. If Citigroup is too big to fail, logic would dictate that so too is the State of California.

Moreover, state and local issuers can do something corporations can't: raise your taxes and cut your services, something that is happening right now across the country.

All of this is bullish for the muni market.

Don't worry! The Man's gonna pay for his mismanagement with your money! Buy, people! Please?

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Selling Nothing

Warren Buffett, Robber Baron?


Insurance is basically a swindle, a hedged bet. We all buy it because we figure it's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. But the insurance industry essentially exists to take your money and then come up with reasons to not give it back to you. No one who has ever dealt with an insurance company can say otherwise.

All of which is fine and good, until the following:

Did you know that the life insurance lobby is actively lobbying to restore the estate tax?


Why would the life insurance industry care about that? It turns out that ten percent of life insurance industry revenue is related to the estate tax. Wealthy people take out life insurance in order to reduce estate taxes because when you die, your life insurance payout doesn't count as part of your estate.

So the estate tax is essentially a benefice distributed to one of America's largest and most rapacious industries.

Way to level that playing field, Democrats

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Rape-Rape Rapity Rape

Other McCain takes a shot at Feministe's opining on Julian Assange's sexual assault charges and ends up making the wrong point:

In an era when some 40% of U.S. births are to unmarried women, in a culture where “Girls Gone Wild” and “hook-ups” are normative, where threesomes, bisexual experimentation and amateur video-porn orgies have become a virtual rite of passage for many young Americans, where chlamydia and herpes are pandemic — in this era of rampant sexual decadence, I say, does Jill Filipovic (J.D., NYU) seriously expect horny strangers to negotiate consent calmly on an act-by-act basis while they’re knocking boots, making the beast with two backs, in flagrante delicto
Listen up, sweetheart: You buy the ticket, you take the ride.

If you will forgive the puns, I take his thrust, but not his point.

Sex does not submit well to legalese. It is the animal in us, acting on non-rational desire, creating an experience that our bodies ride but do not fully control. Contracts made in such a state lend themselves easily to misunderstanding.

And yes, women would do well not to shag impressive-seeming strangers just because their goddamn names are in the paper. That's stupid, and no one should be subject to a harpy-bomb of dull denunciations ("slut-shaming!") because they point out that it's stupid. Sex should come from a well-ground of mutual respect and commitment. You can't have that with someone you don't know, and it's stupid to assume otherwise, and it's irresponsible to teach young people the contrary.

So yes, so-called "sexual liberation" has made it easier for cads like Assange to behave caddishly.

That said, just because a gentleman is hip-deep into a lady does not prevent her from applying the breaks, however foolish her actions up until that point. I don't accept the idea that once the pants are off, she's obligated to cut him a slice of trim. No man could walk into any court of law and say "Hey, she took my pants off. She owes me at least an old-fashioned." Life just doesn't work that way.

So yes, when she says "STOP," he's obligated to stop.

Whether his failure to do so meets the legal definition of rape is another question. The circumstances would play an enormous role. Say, for example, he doesn't hear her, because he's climaxing, and her protests aren't loud enough. Say she tells him to stop, and she does, because of some sudden thing he did/said that kicked her completely out of mood. But then they talk some more, and he moves in again, and she doesn't say "no"? Tacit consent? Not? Murky?

I don't know, myself. But I suspect that yelling the louder will not illuminate the issue.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Perpetual Party Obituaries

Among the more tedious aspects of politics is the rush to pen gleeful post-mortems of the losing party. But two years ago, the GOP was supposed to be doomed, a regional party on its way out like the Federalists of old. Now the Democrats are, in the eyes of the wingnut-sphere, swirling the drain. Here's Roger Simon, prognosticating a nervous breakdown for the donkeys:


the reasons for the Democratic breakdown are infinitely more serious, starting with this little tidbit — Keynesian economics is dead. Giving away money as the route to political success or attempted social justice just isn’t going to work anymore, because there isn’t any money to give away. And it’s only going to get worse as the population ages. The whole justification for the Democratic Party — the welfare state — is one giant Ponzi scheme that makes Madoff seem like a piker.
And everybody knows it. All across the world, from Portugal to Japan, the system is in free fall.

Now, I don't think he's wrong on the subject of Keynesian economics. I think it is "dead", inasmuch as the idea that it's reached its practical limits is becoming widely acceptable. But that doesn't mean dismantling the progressive Leviathan will be a task simple or assured. The beast still has many adherents, who will fight for their place at the public teat.

So no, the idea isn't dead, and it isn't pining for the fjords, either. It's just old, and sick, and in need of hip replacements to survive.