Thursday, May 26, 2011

MSNBC's Lynn Mucken on High Gas Prices: Suck it Up, Proles.

This is a month old, but hardly past its Mock-By date, especially for this web site. Out come the Fisking Shears:

It's my new thing.




Why you should love $5 gas

Stop grousing about the numbers at the pump. All of this could be good for you and good for America


Remember that she said this.

As you pump 13 gallons into your Honda CR-V -- American's best-selling SUV with 28 mpg on the highway and 21 in town -- it's nearly impossible to view the $50 you're spending with a positive attitude.

I drive a Honda CR-V, and I've never put $50 worth of gas in it. Because I fill it up when I get below a quarter tank. Because I'm not an idiot.

With the national average for regular at $3.81, it's easy to label oil executives as pond scum, but try to remain open-minded. Think of the big picture: Though that promised road trip to Disney World has gone up in carbon monoxide, high gas prices may actually have an upside. Not for you and your family personally, maybe, but perhaps for the United States as a whole.

She couldn't wait two whole paragraphs to undercut her sub-heading: "Well, maybe it won't be good for you, as a person, but it'll be good for the collective you." Fine. Let that "You" love $5 $3.81 gasoline. The more personal "You" will be bemoaning his fate and wondering why gas can't cost 87 cents, as it did in the summer of '99.

What if gas hit $5 a gallon? Here are some benefits (and we're serious about most of them):

Thanks for the warning. Mind telling me which ones? I'd like to know how much of this un-clever, lazily-written claptrap I can ignore.

Fewer people would die on the road. The less you drive, the more likely you will survive, if the events of 2008, the year of the most recent gas price surge, are correct. In 2007, 30,527 died in vehicle accidents in the U.S., according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. In 2008, that number dropped 12%, to 26,791.

This mainly was attributed to a decrease in highway speeds. Also contributing was a 2% drop in miles driven, from 3.03 trillion to 2.97 trillion, despite a 1.7% increase in the number of registered vehicles. On the negative side, with many turning to more economical modes of transportation, motorcycle deaths rose 2.6% in 2008 and bicycle deaths 1%.

With so many statistics, this must be one of the serious ones. So I will most seriously intone the cliche that "most accidents occur in the home," and point out that but according to the National Safety Council, accidents in the home increased %14 from 2007-2008. There were 54,500 home accident deaths, or double the number of highway deaths.

So high gas prices makes us stay in a place twice as lethal. Yay.

Demand for high-mileage cars could grow. The key word here is "could." Hybrid sales rose quickly in 2007 as gas prices climbed, then dropped noticeably in the second half of 2008 as gas prices plummeted from over $4 to $1.60. This time around, despite gas prices climbing steadily over the past year, hybrid cars shrunk from 2.9% of new vehicle sales in 2009 to 2.4% in 2010, according to Ward's Auto. Meanwhile, sales of trucks, SUVs, crossovers and minivans rose from 48% of the market to 51% from 2009 to 2010. In addition, the average fuel economy rating of new vehicles sold in 2010 was 22.2 mpg, down from 22.3 mpg in 2009.

So while you're tightening your belt, avoiding your bank balance, and putting 13 gallons of gas into your CR-V when you only need 10, cheer yourself with the thought that a rather obvious market self-correction could be happening.

Shorter security lines. Airlines fares are extremely fuel-price reactive. Soon, hardly anyone will be able to afford to fly willy-nilly around the country or globe. You will breeze through the maze of airport checkpoints.

If you're one of the people who can afford to fly, that is. If, not, I'm sure the TSA will just let you wander through the checkpoints and envision the day when you can ride the magic air-bus again.

In other words, if high-fuel prices don't really affect you, you'll stand to benefit from there being fewer people flying. Which could make the airlines lower their fares. Win-win, Rockefeller!

Less pollution. Less driving means cleaner air. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "pollution from vehicles causes two of our worst air pollution problems, smog and carbon monoxide." There are no solid figures on how many Americans die annually from car-produced pollution, but a 2008 study by Great Britain's University of Birmingham linked pneumonia deaths to pollution from motor vehicles.

Yeah! I mean, it's not like more people staying home during what would ordinarily be the summer driving season will cause people to air-condition their houses more, and its certainly not like the electricity that powers air-conditioning comes mostly from coal-burning power plants. Our simplistic syllogisms are impervious to outside data!

Less congestion. Ever notice how well rush-hour freeway traffic flows on the minor holidays when most of the rest of us are working? A 2% drop in miles driven can make a big difference, allowing you to drive faster, although you now won't want to. According to the Department of Energy, on average every 5 mph you drive over 60 is like paying an extra 24 cents per gallon (based on a $3.79 price).

Yep, fewer drones on the road (because fewer of them have those pesky jobs anyway. Yay, Funemployment!) means you can zip along! But don't. You'd be causing more pollution, more highway deaths, pneumonia, and a not-positive attitude. But you could be boosting demand for high-mileage vehicles! So step on the gas, Carnegie!

High prices lead to lower prices. Mackubin Thomas Owens, a professor of national-security affairs at the Naval War College and the editor of Orbis, the journal of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, theorizes that if gas prices rise enough, the government will open up areas now closed to oil production and oil companies will be able to invest in more-expensive methods of extracting oil. Soon we will be drowning in the stuff, and prices will drop again.

See? This situation is good because it's so bad that something good is just bound to happen as a result! It's one of those karma things!

An when everything gets turned around, more people will die on the road, demand for high-mileage vehicles will drop, the security line at the airport will snake into the next county, the air will be choked with smog, and congestion will increase (at least that doesn't decrease fuel efficiency). ARE YOU DANCING IN THE STREET YET?


I'm guessing she expected that people would be so surprised to see someone at MSNBC understand market self-correction that they wouldn't notice how she slipped in the fact that current gas prices stem from a politically-created shortage, which the Obama Administration could end at any time.

More exercise. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that by 2020, three out of four Americans will be categorized as overweight or obese. So, it can't hurt to walk the three blocks to the grocery or bike to school or work.

Unless you're one of the poor fools killed in the increasing bike accidents, that is.

"When gas hits $4 a gallon, a lot of people come in looking for options," said Tim Blumenthal, the president of Bikes Belong Coalition. "Bike commuting jumped 44% between 2000 and 2010, with a big part of that in 2008. Still, more than half of all bike trips are three miles or less, so we're seeing racks and baskets (sold) for those who have multiple stops to make on the way home."

Cheer up, America! We're becoming China! Tom Friedman will be jumping for joy!

End of wars. According to National Defense Magazine, the cost of "in theater" gasoline to our troops in Afghanistan can range from $100 to $600. The Army estimated fuel can cost up to $400 a gallon if the only way to ship it is via helicopters. (Black Hawk helicopters get 0.74 mpg, while F15-E strike fighters get 0.41 mpg.) And that was last year's prices. Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya might get too expensive for America's taste.

"No Blood For Oil" finally dies the death.

Although this would be good news. I mean, if we could just have the enemy come here and fight us, that would be much more convenient. I'll bet they wouldn't mind. Maybe we could offer to split the gas money or something.

Local businesses could profit. If you can't afford to drive out to Wal-Mart or Home Depot, you may be buying instead at the local supermarket or neighborhood hardware store. In addition, as the cost of transporting, say, grapes from Chile, goes out of sight, you may turn to regional farmers for your produce.

There's that "could" again. I'm beginning to wonder if higher fuel prices will affect plain, virtue-dripping local stores the way they do wicked Big Boxes.

Come on, cheer up! Remember how much fun it was to pay more for stuff? Of entering a store and not really knowing that they'd have anything like what you were looking for? Of having to drive to two or three places to do your shopping? Just don't permit yourself to think "Enh. I'll just get it on Amazon..." The Local Store is GOOD. The Large Corporation is BAD.

It's all about democracy. If we let up on the gas pedal, we'll starve those oil-rich despots out of existence. Oh, we import as much from Canada as from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela combined.

So if we let up on the gas-pedal, we'll starve Canada out of existence?

Forget everything I just said. I'm sold!

No comments: