The Many Futures of Fuel

Peak Oil has been greatly on my mind of late. I suspect, as many commentators have predicted, that when oil begins to be used up, we will throw a great many stop-gap fuels, aimed at stretching supply, into the mix. I also think we're going to have to make a serious move towards nuclear energy to replace coal, and some efforts to make buildings more energy efficient. For some details, please consult this transcript (.pdf) of a 2005 Energy Conference led by the chap who's going to become my Congressman as of next month (Roscoe Bartlett, R-MD).

At this point, what we need to be doing is experimenting as much as is possible with alternatives, on as wide a basis as possible. Thus, some of the speakers at this conferences, whatever the validity of the plans they personally favor, have entirely the wrong overall viewpoint. Absent a major scientific breakthrough on the order of cold-fusion, there is no "magic bullet." We are going to have to apply a variety of fuel sources, each appropriate to a need. Popular Mechanics uses the idiom of a family owning "an electric or plug-in hybrid for short trips, an E85/electric hybrid sedan, SUV or minivan to squire the whole team, and a diesel pickup fueled by B30 or B50 to haul most anything else."

In other words, now is precisely the time to avoid calls for planning and rationing and "leadership" as Mr. John Howe makes in the transcript (he also is of the opinion that men who have fathered one child ought to undergo immediate vasectomies. But Buckley, Jr. is the "crypto-fascist." Heigh-ho). Such would be a disaster, because "leadership" usually means that one course of action will be followed.

In times of crisis, it is always tempting to give in to the temptation of authority. Often, if the crisis is of short duration and limited in scope, the temptation is justified. But a move from fossil fuels to X is not a crisis, it's an economic transition. It's wheels and shifts are not plannable by any single mind, nor are they effectively managed by politicians, consultants, or bureaucrats. Each of these has a different goal and is paid in a different coin than someone who merely wants to make a machine that works.

In short, we need more than one solution, and more than one group contributing: politicians will need to underline the problems and free up the regulatory entanglements, scientists will need to apply the brainpower, and capitalists will need to supply the capital and prepare the markets. I am not such a fool as to predict how my grandson will commute, nor how he will cook his food, nor how he will heat his home. But I know that he will be better off if he has options.


UPDATE: In the same Popular Mechanics article, a Mr. David E. Cole of the Center for Auto Research, predicted that:

"If gasoline prices get too high and we look to other fuels--like hydrogen--you can expect that oil-producing nations will reduce our fuel costs. They want to continue to pump oil out, pump dollars in, and they could see the hydrogen economy as a threat."

I have doubts as to the extent to which this will be possible, if it's true that the Mid-East is operating at or near 100% capacity. But today's USA Today declares that Oil has dropped below $74 a barrel as gasoline demand has remained flat and refinery output slightly increased. So who knows?